Tuesday, March 3, 2009

My completely unsubstantiated opinions

The Future Will Come in this Order:
1) Cure for Cancer is announced. A real cure. None of this chemo, 85% survival rate Bullshit. I'm talking out patient procedure. I'm talking you miss half a day of work, max, getting your lung cancer cleared up.
2) The Nano revolution. Robots in the Fucking Blood.
3) Robots running a handful of narrow AI programs gut the armed forces. (I mean GUT it. Its begun, but this will change the face of the army- no more lame commercials.)
4) People understand what I mean by AR. Early AR, though not as awesome as it will be in a couple of years, is handy and, relatively, cheap.
5) RapRep's common. The idea of buying plastic crap from Walmart becomes unthinkable.
6) Better RapRep's. Things are starting to seem like Star Trek... and by that I mean TNG, none of that Enterprise BS. (Honestly, a Southern chief engineer? What're we building a theme park?)
7) Fully immersive VR. Likely it will have become technically feasible before this point, but this is when those alpha consumer types will start buying it. I would, in all honesty, rather have this than literate children. As dumb as my kids would be, effe 'em, I'm going to Hawaii be back in an hour.
8) Aubrey De Grey seems less crazy (provided he's either a) shaved or b) purchased some reasonable clothes). Life extension finally all comes together. By this point Doctors will have done wonders replacing or even reversing the aging process of organs, but til this point it's been confined to the stopping light in a frozen bromide matrix field of science- neat tricks but not much good to us commoners.
9) The Cubs win the World Series.
10) Strong AI. Deal with it nerds! It's coming last!

How did I reach these conclusions? I read every science headline I can find. I built the order based on the amount of ink each topic gets. The one exception, Life Extension, could easily happen sooner, after all, curing cancer is, in a way, life extension. Everything health related becomes a form of life extension.

AI, and particularly strong AI, just doesn't make a lot of headlines. In fact, it makes very, very few. Because, near as I can tell, there isn't a lot directly happening. Still, for me, the stuff I'm worried about doesn't take strong AI...

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